Nigeria: Lagos Building Collapses - We Used Machine Learning to Show Where and Why They Happen

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Analysis - Building collapses have become a major menace in Lagos, Nigeria. Lagos is the business hub of the country and has its largest seaport and airport. With an estimated population of 15.4 million, it is the largest city in sub-Saharan Africa and the second largest in Africa after Cairo.

that ranked the factors affecting building construction collapses in order of relevance. We also modelled the number of casualties by location.The study classified causes of building collapses into human factors, natural disasters and unspecified causes.

Second, building collapses on the mainland had a higher number of casualties than those on the island. Based on our findings, we recommended proper onsite geotechnical inspection before the start of construction in both locations.Our study showcased the applicability of supervised machine learning models for a range of purposes. Supervised machine learning models are algorithms that learn from labelled data, where the input and corresponding desired output are provided.

Our study provided a comprehensive analysis of building collapse statistics in Lagos from 2000 to 2021. The buildings ranged from bungalows to multi-storey buildings and skyscrapers.The highest number of collapses occurred in 2011, with 10 buildings involved, followed by 2000 and 2006, with nine each. The peak casualty count, 140, occurred in 2014. It was concentrated in the Ikotun-Egbe area of the Lagos mainland.

Our study emphasised the importance of understanding the causes of building collapses in Lagos, and the potential of machine learning algorithms for prediction.First, that it is important to carry out basic soil investigation using the right professionals and building engineers to ascertain the geological properties or bearing capacity of the soil.Sign up for free AllAfrica Newsletters

 

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