The NBER is wrong — the recession didn’t begin in February, it began in March

A private group of academics, the National Bureau of Economic Research, announced Monday that the recession began in February 2020 because that’s when they claim jobs started disappearing. They are wrong: the job losses — and the recession — began in March.

The first U.S. death from COVID-19 wasn’t reported until Feb. 29, after the supposed start of the recession. The economy hadn’t really been touched yet, although the forward-looking stock market SPX, -0.86% peaked some 10 days earlier, largely because investors could see that the United States would not be spared.

• Consumer confidence held steady in February, with few survey respondents mentioning the coronavirus as a factor in their outlook. Business surveys remained robust, with rising order books at U.S. services companies. In short, the COVID-19 pandemic had little impact on the real economy during February. But when it hit in March, it hit like a tsunami.

From early March:The coronavirus is taking aim at consumer spending, the heart of the American economy

Does anyone audit the jobs data?

Totally agree. We just finished the longest and weakest expansion. Will this be the deepest and shortest recession?

we aren't in a recession though. We haven't had two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. we'll see what happens at the end of the month. Can states reopening turn GDP positive in three weeks?

NBER's own standard is two consecutive quarters of CONTRACTION. Not 'job losses' or 'unemployment filings.' I'm just a pissed-off suburban housewife with an arts degree and I know that. You're supposed to be the experts. Do better.

You don’t say?

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The NBER is wrong — the recession began in March, not FebruaryThe available facts show that the recession began in March, not February. Just like the WHO, the CDC and the White House, the NBER will deservedly lose... real question now is when are we going to admit to a depression era environment for the 'lower' 70% of the population...... 🤔
Source: MarketWatch - 🏆 3. / 97 Read more »

The NBER is wrong — the recession began in March, not FebruaryThe available facts show that the recession began in March, not February. Just like the WHO, the CDC and the White House, the NBER will deservedly lose... real question now is when are we going to admit to a depression era environment for the 'lower' 70% of the population...... 🤔
Source: MarketWatch - 🏆 3. / 97 Read more »