A private group of academics, the National Bureau of Economic Research, announced Monday that the recession began in February 2020 because that’s when they claim that’s when jobs started disappearing. They are wrong; it began in March.
The first U.S. death from COVID-19 wasn’t reported until Feb. 29, after the supposed start of the recession. The economy hadn’t really been touched yet, although the forward-looking stock market SPX, +1.20% peaked some 10 days earlier, largely because investors could see that the United States would not be spared.
• Consumer confidence held steady in February, with few survey respondents mentioning the coronavirus as a factor in their outlook. Business surveys remained robust, with rising order books at U.S. services companies. In short, the COVID-19 pandemic had little impact on the real economy during February. But when it hit in March, it hit like a tsunami.
The committee puts a lot of stock in employment as an indicator of a recession. They note, correctly, that employment fell sharply between the February and March jobs reports, released in March and April, respectively.
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real question now is when are we going to admit to a depression era environment for the 'lower' 70% of the population......