prosecution and a week before the first and earliest-ever scheduled post-primary presidential debate, it’s a good time to look at how these two unusually elderly and oft-reviled candidates stand in the contest.average of recent polls was 0.9 percentage points when the verdict was handed down and 0.8 points as this is written. With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other third candidates included, Trump’s lead over Biden increased from 2.2 points to 2.4.
Moreover, the numbers here are consistent with national polling showing increased Trump support from non-college-graduate Hispanics and blacks. The 2020 exit polls reported that 19% of voters in Arizona and 17% in Nevada were Hispanic and that 29% of voters in Georgia were black. So an Electoral College tie probably means a second Trump term. So, too, would a Trump plurality in Pennsylvania, which he carried by 0.7 points in 2016 and lost by 1.2 points in 2020. The former president leads by 2.3 points in recent Pennsylvania polls, and Biden has led in no Pennsylvania polls in three months and in only four of 23 this year.