The Biden administration is taking credit for a sharp drop in violent crime nationwide earlier this year but one expert cautions that the declines in FBI data are preliminary and likely overstated. The data show steep drops in every category of violent crime in every region in the first three months of 2024 compared to a year earlier, continuing a downward trend since a coronavirus pandemic surge.
But a crime data analyst was skeptical the latest declines were quite so steep. Violent crime almost certainly did fall earlier this year but the FBI almost certainly overstated by how much, Jeff Asher with the data consulting firm AH Datalytics wrote in an online post. The preliminary data for 77% of the U.S. population is prone to reporting errors, which law enforcement agencies have months to correct before making final submissions, Asher noted.