If the market were a sport and a game lasted a year then the betting apps' win-probability charts would be skewed way in favor of the bulls at the end of the first quarter. This isn't simply a function of the score, with the S & P 500 up more than 10% and a majority of stocks now participating in the advance. It's also about how the odds for the next few quarters fall, based on what we've seen so far. .
If recent signs of consumer fatigue and loosening labor-market conditions gather pace, it wouldn't take much to get a "Fed is behind the curve" scare running through markets. Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, has been bullish on bonds and still is overweight them, but feels the likely easing scenario is already priced into intermediate- and long-term Treasuries.