Investors fixated on earnings and monetary policy are starting to factor in another variable that could sway markets this year: the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
“You get a sense … have a lot on their plates right now, and politics is starting to come into that,” said Paul Christopher, head of global market strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “Even though everyone knows the candidates, it’s going to be a pretty close race so it’s very difficult to predict the outcome.”
However, “it’s going to be difficult for any tax policy proposal to pass by either side because it’s going to come down to party lines,” said Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist for Blue Chip Daily Trend Report. At the same time, election years come with their share of volatility. Analysts at BofA Global Research noted earlier this month that, in previous election years, the Cboe Volatility Index has risen by an average of 25 per cent from the second quarter to November.