In Defense of a (Probably) Very Predictable Oscars 2024

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An obvious winner. A late show date. Barbenheimer jokes already writing themselves. We all know what to expect on Sunday night—and that’s not the worst thing in the world.

Depending on how quickly you keyed into Oppenheimer’s potent combination of qualities—its grave subject matter, its critical acclaim, its box-office explosion, its filmmaker’s overdue narrative—this thing has been over for maybe eight months, when Barbenheimer first took over American moviegoing. By that point, already, the Cannes Film Festival had premiered three movies that’d go on to best picture nods of their own, in Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, and The Zone of Interest.

The Oscars have faced criticism for airing so late in the game—and there’s a point to be made about better sustaining interest, when things get so predictable, by striking in the heat of the season. But as Academy president Janet Yang told me last month, the show airs in March for a reason: This voting body of more than 10,000 people needs to be given every possible opportunity to watch the nominees, especially those that are smaller or less accessible. I tend to agree.

 

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