that interest rate hikes will probably be on hold for the rest of 2019 because they see fewer signs of strong economy. Some of the weaker trends will probably last a couple of years, while others are likely to rebound quickly. Here’s the bad news list and my observations on how long the bad will last.
Retail sales dropped the last two months, especially in furniture, electronics and appliances, and sporting goods. Gasoline sales were down because of lower prices. Probably temporary, as employment will grow, along with wage rates, pushing total income up. Manufacturing production fell the last two months, totaling nearly one percent. A portion of the decline was in metals and machinery used by petroleum exploration and development. This sector is softening because of the lower crude oil prices. Look for a leveling off after a few more months of decline.
Exports fell a little in November and a lot in December. With lower economic growth rates abroad and the trade wars continuing, I don’t expect much strength.
Rekt