Uncertainty around the path of the U.S. economy, including difficulties estimating the state of financial markets, potential oil price shocks, and the impact of labor union strikes, pushed Federal Reserve officials into a cautious stance at their meeting last month as debate proceeded over whether further rises in the central bank’s policy rate would be needed, according to minutes of the Sept. 19-20 session released on Wednesday.
Data volatility and revisions to prior statistical releases posed one set of problems in assessing the economy, the minutes said, as did determining underlying parameters like the neutral rate of interest, the impact of rising “real” rates being bid up by markets, and the degree to which tighter credit would ultimately curb business borrowing and spending.
Though policymakers are publicly aligned that there is still “work to do” with key measures of inflation remaining well above 3 per cent, the minutes showed increased concern about the risks of going too far with rate increases and slowing activity so much it causes companies to lay off large numbers of workers.
The debate is now over whether prices will continue to fall without any further rate increases, or whether slightly more restrictive monetary policy will be needed.
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