The stats that show where the AFL grand final will be won or lost

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Both Collingwood and the Brisbane Lions can attack with venom and defend with grit, but it will be crucial contests that put teammates into space and opponents out of position that will determine the result.

The game holds plenty of promise; the combatants are certain to be challenged. Fans will be tense, coaches on edge and bravery essential. Also essential will be the tactical battles.In 2023, the Brisbane Lions became better at defending turnover, varying their attacking method according to what the opposition allowed. They understand when to attack with speed and when to build up with patient kicks until a gap opens up.

Collingwood defender Darcy Moore switched the ball across the goal to Jeremy Howe, who marked under pressure. Howe immediately looked to half-back and kicked to Jordan De Goey, who was in between two opponents. He swung immediately and kicked wider to Steele Sidebottom, and Collingwood found a road to goal. The kick to De Goey was risky, but it was necessary as the ball suddenly began to flow. The kick was a portent to the third quarter, when the match was won.

If the Pies don’t take risks, the Lions will eat them up as they are superb at changing angles and taking uncontested marks, conserving energy while their opponents charge around like sheepdogs to man the mark. One quarter of Collingwood’s goals come from chains starting at half-back. That is a huge percentage from the same area of the ground. It’s where the flag will be won, or lost.

The last time these two teams played, Collingwood did not defend the corridor as well as they will on Saturday, disrupting kicking or handballing chains and limiting the Lions inside-50s. That’s important because although the Magpies’ team defence is good, if the opposition works the ball into the forward half in space they can slice through – Collingwood look to guard dangerous space and rely on their closing speed to get across the help teammates in the air.

Where the Lions have improved is their running power away from the contest. Darcy Wilmot, McKenna, Dayne Zorko and Bailey are all runners, whereas the Magpies have more cunning, creative types such as Josh Daicos and Scott Pendlebury, who rely on footy smarts.There has never been a team as successful in tight finishes as Collingwood under Craig McRae. They can either play to win or defend to win.

 

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