On October 10, Liberians will go to the polls to elect their next president, the fourth since the end of the civil war. The 2023 presidential and legislative elections are among the most crowded, anxiety-producing, and consequential in Liberia's 176-year history.
The main opposition Unity Party seems the clear favorite of the over-65 age cohort, many of whom were active or worked in government during the dictatorship of Samuel Doe. Its standard bearer, former vice president Joseph Boakai is viewed as experienced and wise, with a temperament that fits the job.
The Collaborating Political Parties , an alliance of two opposition political parties, the Alternative National Congress, and the Liberty Party, will have to work harder to get to the second round. The CPP might reap high voting numbers in Rivercess and Grand Bassa counties. Many voters love Cummings and see him as the only candidate with the international experience and connections to lure top-flight investors to Liberia. Still, he has a likeability deficit that is problematic to overcome. So, Cummings must lead a robust ground game to knock out Boakai or Weah in the first round to have a chance, but some voters need to be humbler about casting their vote for him.
However, I must warn you that there may be a"social desirability bias" going on as well - the idea that voters will tell anyone asking whatever reason they think will reflect positively upon them. Many people won't publicly admit they are voting for Weah. A Weah victory may be unimaginable to many, but it is not impossible. The outcome of this extraordinary election will not be based on crowd sizes and social media chatters but on the so-called"silent voters.