My colleagues JP Aubry and Yimeng Yin just released an update on state and local pension plans. Their analysis compared 2023 to 2019 – the year before all the craziness began. Think of the unusual events that have occurred in the last few years: 1) the onset of COVID; 2) the subsequent COVID stimulus; 3) declining interest rates; 4) rising inflation; and then 5) rising interest rates.
While the aggregate funded ratio provides a useful measure of the public pension landscape at large, it also can obscure variations in funding at the plan level. Figure 2 separates the plans into thirds based on their current actuarial funded status. The average 2023 funded ratio for each group was 57.6% for the bottom third, 79.5% for the middle third, and 91.1% for the top third.
The effect of fixed income’s decline on overall portfolio performance has been modest because, since 2019, fixed income has averaged only about 20% of pension fund assets .
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