We start this midsummer roundup with some good news: The global economy is unlikely to tip into a global recession this year,. In its July forecast, the IMF credits the recent resolution of the US debt ceiling standoff and “strong action by authorities” earlier this year to contain turbulence in U.S. and Swiss banking. While its projected 3% growth rate for 2023 is weak by historical standards, it’s better than the 2.8% growth projections in April.
Then again, estimates have a way of being derailed by black swan events and geopolitical issues. One that came to a head this week: The , which has prompted Morgan Stanley cut Israel’s sovereign credit to a"dislike stance" and Moody’s to issue a warning could lead to a downgrade.
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