last week, "I always have been a little bit cautious about the yield curve indicators," but added "there's definitely a correlation there" with future economic activity.
Mester said that while she doesn't see a recession on the horizon, many of her business contacts do. But she also agrees with Harker that the curve could just be reflecting the unusual circumstances of monetary policy right now.A recent note from J.P. Morgan economists argued the structure of interest rates is currently heavily dominated by expectations high inflation will eventually fall.
The Fed's own internal approach to making sense of the economic implications of the yield curve remains unsettled.. "It is not valid to interpret inverted term spreads as independent measures of impending recession," it said, adding that market pricing mostly reflects expectations for the path of monetary policy, with little direct thinking on the economic outlook.
A recession seems likely.
They are wrong.
AMAZING. PEOPLE NEED TO LOSE THERE JOBS BECAUSE PRIVATE CORPORATIONS REFUSE TO LOWER THERE GREEDY PRICES. WE NEED TO BUST UP CORPORATIONS FOR COMPETITION. THAT IS THE PROBLEM