Total music consumption in the United States rose 9.2%, according to Luminate’s 2022 year-end report. While that was slower than the 11.3% consumption growth in 2021, “9.2% relative to 11.3% is not a massive move in growth,” says, managing partner at Shot Tower Capital. “As a whole, the growth rates are within expectation for me and still very healthy,” adds, executive vp and director of music, sports and entertainment at Pinnacle Financial Partners.
With streaming up and physical formats down, that mix is favorable for catalogs. “Margins are improving” as a result of increased digital consumption, says Dunn. Digital music is less expensive to distribute than physical formats — especially vinyl, which has relatively weak margins and high shipping costs. The cost of producing an additional download or stream is effectively zero, aside from negligible costs of data storage and bandwidth. That’s a net positive for catalog valuations.
Younger catalogs with decaying royalty growth, however, are a different matter. “I think for newer catalogs that have not yet leveled off and whose royalties are not increasing, it’s hard to argue that all the external economic factors — rising interest rates, inflation, etc. — do not have an impact,” says Weisman.
Focusing only on unit sales doesn’t tell the entire story, however. Vinyl records may have relatively poor margins, but rising vinyl prices create more margin dollars for labels. In the first half of 2022, the average sale price of vinyl in the United States rose 5.6% to $26.16, according to the RIAA.
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