Everything we need to know about the future is right before our eyes. Granted we must know where to look but even that is not as challenging as it may seem. The past leads to the present and the present to the future.
It is an “Old Boys/Girls Club” idea that the local stock market tracks the New York market and that is 100 percent accurate, until it doesn’t. The data—daily price changes over a five-year period—shows that the PSE has a 50 percent chance of trading up or down as the Dow Jones did the day before. But what about longer term? On a monthly basis over years, of course both exchanges track each other. The “Crash of 2020” was worldwide.
But since the early October bottom, the Dow is up 20 percent, with the PSE gaining 15 percent. Superimpose both price charts back to April 2022, and the correlation is too close for comfort. Two things hammered global economies with inflation in 2022: supply chain problems and high oil prices, which drove shipping costs skyward with equally high food cost. US inflation in June was 9 percent and has come down to 7.7 percent.