Save time by listening to our audio articles as you multitaskReasons for the Democrats’ surprisingly good prospects are easy to identify. Petrol prices have come down. President Joe Biden’s ratings have shot up. The overturning ofhas energised Democrats. But how to quantify all this? And how confident are we in the party’s chances?
Aficionados may remember, however, that in both 2020 and 2016 bias in our polls-of-polls for individual races pushed our forecast farther from the results than if we had ignored the surveys altogether. Conservative Republicans were much less likely than Democrats and progressives to answer pollsters’ calls, skewing the numbers to the left.
Take our projections in the Senate. The Democrats’ current advantage is largely due to favourable polling in four Republican-held seats: North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But these states have another thing in common. Each had a large polling error in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.
no
The polls don't misfire. Everybody is cheating now. Thanks, Trump.
The poles don't misfire. Everybody is cheating now. Thanks, Trump.
Polls were within 1% VC in areas of the USA that vote on verifiable paper ballots, hand counted… like EU & Canada.
HOOOOOOOORSE RACE EVERYBODY CLICK CLICK CLICK
… and he’s still on the ballot
is that some kind of undergarment?
More like Fetterwook
Nevada and Georgia is the combo.
Those his underwear?
Polls are wrong. Republicans flip Georgia, retain PA and that’s all they need to take over the Senate
Thank you for the totally unbiased articles . You are a really reliable source of news…for the liberal majority.
America hasn't had secure, honest elections the entire time I've been old enough to vote. After I die, you'll find me voting three or four times per election for Democrats. Until then, my vote will never be counted. You all know that.
Forget last time - go to '16 where Hillary was accusing Trump of not accepting the results even before Election Day. Then the day came and went, and she was the one not accepting results and blaming the Russians 🤷♂️
Man those are some big underpants he is holding up...
democrats thanks to POTUS it will be close. I and the many of the rich will be tax loss harvesting this year instead of paying taxes. Meanwhile the poor and middle class will foot the bill. The election will be betwen two cabdidates Americans dislike. Again, it will be close.
Late to the party gents. No one trust the polls anymore. Not even the people who generate them.
Probably because they were too busy going to work.
Huh. Fetterman can get away with this and look good doing it, without a hint of sexism attaching. I think because his image is so consistent. Not very effective PUBLIC advertising, though.
Apply the Cracker Barrel/whole Foods weighting to results from every district. Problem solved.
This the point benshapiro has been making for YEARS. Polls accuracy is decreasing over time. This is the main reason for the Democrat backlash and psychological rejection of the election that got Trump to the white house. Russian meddling was more believable.
Who you gotta throw up this pic of Fetterman 😂😂😂
Makes sense.
Literacy being an issue…
they’re secretly ashamed of their views that get openly mocked
Polling practices are very outdated. Trying to cut corners in data collection only leads to misrepresentation later. They get one respondent from a rural area and use it to skew the data for multiple neighboring counties. It’s a mess
Encouraged by the tacit approval of the USadmin, the fascist regime of AbiyAhmedAli has,2day, bombed civilian targets in Mekelle & Wukro cities of Tigray,🇪🇹 .It’s to be recalled the US admin didn’t utter a word on the earlier bombardments of Mekelle & Shire. POTUS SecBlinken
Get rid of mail in ballots. Require is to vote. Will go along way to restoring confidence in the process. You would be hard pressed to find another country that does not require is to vote
Hopefully the Democrats will retain both houses. If not, two more years of obstruction and closer to Nazism Republicans will bring us.
They probably will, a whole lot of pissed off people are going to be registered to vote for the first time and they won't be captured by opinion polls.