Electoral math, political geography and the Conservative leadership race

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As the Conservative leadership race approaches the finish line, polls are starting to show a consistent pattern.

The math and political history behind that conclusion are simple. Let’s start with Quebec.

Party affiliation doesn’t matter. Two Trudeau’s, Mulroney, Bouchard, Blanchet. Different parties, different elections, but all strongly endorsed by Quebec voters. Those 7 wins prove he can win in Quebec. That immediately brings into play the 68 seats the Conservatives do not hold now. Between Quebec’s 78 and the GTA’s 53, there are 131 seats. The Conservative party currently holds 14 of them.

Quebec and the GTA are where they need to win. Remember the math Conservatives: between them, Quebec and the GTA have 131 seats. You hold 14. Most of those 27 seats were in Ontario, particularly ethnically sensitive seats in and around the GTA that came on board largely because of the tireless efforts of Jason Kenny who doggedly worked at building bridges to various ethnic communities.

 

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So only People from Quebec are entitled to lead our country. Absolutely screams, healthy democracy!

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