In a survey from the Arizona pollster OH Predictive Insights, the 2022 generic House ballot was tied, with Democrats and Republicans receiving 37% each and the GOP leading Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly, 39% to 37%, on the generic Senate ballot. Republicans enjoy the same advantage of 2 percentage points on the generic gubernatorial ballot as Arizona voters prepare to pick a replacement for GOP Gov. Doug Ducey, who is term-limited.
“In a state as evenly divided as Arizona, both parties are going to need all the votes that they can get,” the polling memo read. The survey of registered voters was conducted March 7-15 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 points.
In the survey, Republicans led Democrats in Arizona’s suburbs by 11 points in generic House and gubernatorial polling, while a generic Republican led Kelly by 7 points. The GOP also enjoyed leads among “middle income voters” earning $50,000 to $100,000 annually. Among this cohort, Republicans led Democrats by 4 points on the generic House ballot, 9 points on the generic Senate ballot, and 6 points on the generic gubernatorial ballot.
However, the poll also included bright spots for Democrats. They led big among self-described moderate voters, outpacing Republicans by 17 points on the generic House ballot, 14 points on the generic Senate ballot, and 13 points on the generic gubernatorial ballot. The Democrats also led Republicans among independents, although the margins were much smaller: 3 points, 5 points, and 6 points, respectively.
Notably, the majority of Arizona voters, 62%, said they are planning to vote by mail. Twelve percent of voters said they intend to request a mail-in ballot, then physically return it via dropbox before Election Day. Another 7% said they plan to vote early, in-person. Just 11% said they intend to cast traditional Election Day ballots.