If the Oscars were based strictly on merit, “The Power of the Dog” would win this prize in a walk. Campion’s sinewy adaptation of Thomas Savage’s stealth novel of cowboy identity is a triumph of form and content, a fact recognized by numerous pre-Oscar awards and nominations that include Campion’s writing and directing and the performances of all four of the film’s major cast members. But there’s no denying the power of a great underdog story and Sian Heder’s “CODA” has that in spades.
Her competition includes “West Side Story” director Steven Spielberg, whom she last squared off against at the 66th Academy Awards in 1994, when her film “The Piano” was among the four competitors of Spielberg’s “Schindler’s List.” Spielberg won that year, but he’s not Campion’s main threat this time, despite his fine work updating a classic musical.