For the second year running the pandemic has reshaped the world, not changing everything, but accelerating many things, from population decline to digital revolution. Here is how these trends could define 2022.Couples had ample opportunity but apparently lacked the desire to bring kids into a shutdown world.
Money printed by central banks continues to inflate financial markets and deepen the debt trap. It is clear that societies addicted to debt find it tough to cut back for fear of bankruptcies and contagion.Fewer workers, more government spending and rising public debt all point to higher inflation – but possibly not to the double-digit levels of the 1970s, as some pundits fear. Government spending should ease in 2022 and technological changes will continue to put a lid on prices.
The bigger risk is asset prices. Financial markets have grown to four times the size of the global economy, and when markets crater, deflation often follows.It’s well known that the fight against global warming is raising demand for green metals such as copper and aluminium. Less well known is that green politics is reducing raw material supplies of all kinds. Investment in mines and oilfields has dropped sharply over the past five years.