TOKYO, Oct 28 ― Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party could lose its majority in Sunday's general election, polls show, potentially turning new leader Fumio Kishida into another short-term prime minister and triggering a return to political uncertainty.
The focus remains on whether the LDP can hang onto a majority by itself. A lacklustre result for Kishida, who is just weeks into the job, could lead to a push in the party to oust him ahead of next year's upper house vote.“A weak showing for the LDP could also give more say for the dovish Komeito, acting as a break on the conservative security policies popular with the LDP's right wing,” said Tomoaki Iwai, political science professor at Nihon University.
“The opposition collaboration in single seat districts is remarkable. It means that the votes that would previously be split among several candidates are now going to one, giving the opposition a realistic chance against the LDP,” said Iwai.Sunday's election is the most unpredictable since the LDP swept back to power under Shinzo Abe in 2012 ― a victory that ushered in the longest premiership in Japan's history and ended years of policy paralysis caused by revolving-door premiers.
Unfortunately for the opposition, they too have failed to get traction. Yukio Edano, the leader of the largest opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, fares even below Kishida suitability ratings. Kishida has struggled to explain how his economic programme ― aimed at reducing the wealth gap ― differs from the “Abenomics” remedy of Abe and Suga of using massive monetary and fiscal stimulus to revive the moribund economy.
Key battlegrounds include the third-largest city of Osaka, the manufacturing hub of Nagoya and the capital, Tokyo, where several current and former LDP ministers are vulnerable to opposition challenge.