After Near-Term Revival, U.S. Box Office Will Lose Billions As Pandemic-Born Window Shifts Become Permanent, Analyst Predicts

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The summer box office, starting with today’s long-anticipated release of Universal’s F9, is bringing a renewed sense of optimism about the theatrical movie business. But Robert Fishman,…

, reaffirming the analyst’s “neutral” rating on its stock and a 12-month price target of $20. The circuit’s shares were up nearly 2% in mid-day trading today, just above $23.“Now that studios essentially have full flexibility on windowing strategies with increasing

When viewed in terms of the number of releases, the change appears even more profound. Fishman estimates that almost 40% of the 2019 slate from Disney, Warner Bros, Universal, Sony and Paramount would have been unlikely to play exclusively in theaters. Assessing each studio, the analyst said Universal will see “higher cannibalization” due to its more aggressive approach to windows. The studio has made deals with exhibition that could see some non-tentpole titles go to premium video on demand after just 17 days in theaters. Franchise films can make the move after 31 days.

 

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