Record labels were expecting another year of heady revenue growth, with no end in sight — until the coronavirus arrived and shutdown large swaths of the global economy. Now, as the live-music business considers when, and how, to reopen, labels are trying to figure out what the pandemic means for them.
The rise of subscription streaming that has fueled most of the growth in recent years continues to be a bright spot amid the pandemic. While many executives remain hopeful that the stability of streaming revenue can carry record labels on its back until things return to normal, most record companies are diversified and could face declines in their other businesses, including publishing and merchandise.
Looking ahead, record labels are pushing back some releases later in the year. But what happens if all the delayed releases don’t come out; or if too many releases come out in the fourth quarter, causing some key releases to miss revenue projections in the glut? That could also hurt revenue projections, which is why most labels are playing it safe and projecting 2020 revenues to be flat to slightly down.
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